The relationship between glycemia and pancreatic β-cell function cannot be interpreted solely through the thresholds used to diagnose prediabetes and diabetes. In fact, glycemia does not rise suddenly the moment it exceeds a certain value; rather, it tends to change gradually as the systems responsible for its control lose efficiency. β-cells play a central role in this balance: they detect the increase in glucose and regulate insulin secretion so that hepatic production is contained and circulating glucose can be utilized by tissues. As long as this response remains adequate, glycemia can be maintained within apparently normal limits even in the presence of insulin resistance. When, however, insulin secretion is no longer proportional to metabolic needs, glycemic values begin to rise, initially slightly and subsequently until the onset of diabetes.
To correctly assess β-cell function, it is not enough to observe the absolute amount of insulin present in the blood. An insulin-resistant subject may produce much more than an insulin-sensitive person and still have an insufficient pancreatic response relative to their needs. Insulin secretion must therefore be interpreted in relation to the glycemic stimulus and insulin sensitivity. For this purpose, parameters such as the disposition index are used, which describes the pancreas's ability to compensate for insulin resistance. A reduction in this index indicates that β-cells are no longer able to adequately increase secretion, even when insulinemia (the concentration of insulin present in the blood at a given moment) still appears elevated.
The “San Antonio” metabolism study clearly showed that the deterioration of β-cell function spans the entire spectrum of glucose tolerance. By analyzing normotolerant subjects, people with impaired tolerance, and patients with type 2 diabetes, researchers observed a progressive inverse relationship between two-hour glycemia and pancreatic function. The decline was already evident among individuals who were formally normoglycemic: two-hour values between 101 and 119 mg/dL were associated with lower β-cell function compared to lower values, with further worsening between 121 and 139 mg/dL. The impairment then continued into glucose intolerance and reached maximum severity in overt diabetes (Gastaldelli et al., 2004) [17].
Normal glucose tolerance, therefore, does not represent a metabolically uniform condition. Two people with glycemia below the diagnostic threshold may possess very different β-cell reserves. One may respond rapidly to the glucose stimulus, while the other may have already lost a significant portion of their compensatory capacity. Glycemia is still classified as normal, but the pancreas may be forced to work under less favorable conditions and with progressively reduced margins of adaptation.
This pathophysiological continuity has also been observed in obese youth. In 407 children and adolescents with normal glucose tolerance, the increase in two-hour glycemia from values below 100 mg/dL toward values between 120 and 139 mg/dL was accompanied by a more pronounced early glycemic response. In the first thirty minutes of the OGTT, however, insulin secretion did not increase proportionally. This resulted in a progressive reduction of the insulinogenic index (which measures the pancreas's ability to increase insulin secretion in response to rising glycemia), present even when participants were compared at the same level of insulin sensitivity. This indicated that the impairment of the β-cell response was not simply a consequence of insulin resistance, but a functional alteration recognizable already within normoglycemia (Yeckel et al., 2005) [18].
The early phase of insulin secretion is particularly important because it limits the rise in glycemia immediately after glucose enters the circulation. A rapid release of insulin helps suppress hepatic glucose production and prepares peripheral tissues to utilize the glucose coming from the meal. When this response becomes weak or delayed, glycemia rises more rapidly. The pancreas may attempt to compensate through more prolonged secretion, but the delayed response does not always succeed in completely correcting the initial excursion.
The relationship between fasting glycemia and pancreatic function confirms this phenomenon. In 531 non-diabetic Japanese and Mexican-American subjects, insulin secretion was assessed via C-peptide (an indicator of pancreatic insulin production), reducing the influence exerted by hepatic insulin clearance. In participants with normal glucose tolerance, the disposition index decreased exponentially with the increase in fasting glycemia between 70 and 125 mg/dL. Each 28 mg/dL increment was associated with a 63% reduction in β-cell function corrected for insulin resistance. The deterioration primarily affected the secretion of the first thirty minutes, while the late phase did not show a significant relationship with basal glycemia (Abdul-Ghani et al., 2008) [19].
Even apparently modest glycemic variations can therefore reflect much broader functional alterations. Glycemia represents the final result of the interaction between hepatic production, peripheral utilization, insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and other regulatory mechanisms. When it begins to rise, even while remaining in the non-diabetic range, it may indicate that a portion of the pancreatic reserve has already been lost.
A study of 527 subjects with normoglycemia and normal glucose tolerance documented a reduction in β-cell function of up to approximately 40% in a portion of the participants. The impairment was associated with age, body weight, BMI (a parameter that relates weight and height), visceral fat, waist circumference, triglycerides, and cholesterol. Glycemia during the OGTT was also inversely correlated with pancreatic function. The product of fasting glycemia and one-hour glycemia showed the best ability to identify β-cell dysfunction, while one-hour glycemia above 110 mg/dL was associated with an almost sevenfold greater probability of presenting functional impairment (Vilchis-Flores et al., 2019) [20].
The vulnerability of β-cells thus fits into a context in which age, adiposity, lipid profile, and nutritional load interact. The accumulation of visceral fat increases insulin demand and is accompanied by a less favorable metabolic environment, while excessive energy availability can subject the pancreas to persistent stimulation. These observational data do not necessarily prove a direct causal relationship, but they show that the loss of pancreatic efficiency can be present long before diagnosis.
The weight of β-cell dysfunction appears particularly evident in populations of Indian Asian origin, in whom diabetes can appear at a young age and with relatively contained levels of adiposity. In a study of 1,264 subjects without known diabetes, the oral disposition index was reduced by 38% in isolated fasting hyperglycemia and by 32% in isolated glucose intolerance compared to normal tolerance. Variations in insulin resistance were, however, more modest. Even after correction for age, sex, BMI, waist circumference, and family history, β-cell function remained the parameter most associated with mild dysglycemia (Staimez et al., 2013) [21].
Similar results were obtained in young Indian Asians with prediabetes or early-onset type 2 diabetes. In diabetic patients, the oral disposition index was almost ten times lower compared to normotolerant controls. In prediabetes, both reduced insulin sensitivity and pancreatic impairment contributed; in overt diabetes, however, only β-cell function maintained a significant independent association (Mohan et al., 2013) [22].
Insulin resistance naturally retains an important role, as it increases the amount of insulin required to obtain the same biological response and therefore the work required of the pancreas. However, it does not inevitably lead to hyperglycemia. Many people remain normoglycemic because their β-cells manage to adequately increase secretion. Progression toward diabetes depends to a large extent on the ability to sustain such compensation over time.
This interpretation was confirmed in a longitudinal study of 302 normoglycemic women three months after childbirth. Over the following five years, 89 developed prediabetes or diabetes. These women initially presented with greater adiposity, insulin resistance, and already reduced pancreatic function, but the main predictor of progression was the continuous deterioration of the ISSI-2, an index that integrates insulin secretion and sensitivity. Its predictive contribution was much higher than that of HOMA-IR, the Matsuda index, BMI, and waist circumference (Retnakaran et al., 2023) [23].
The debate remains open regarding the initial order of events. The traditional model considers hyperinsulinemia a compensatory response to insulin resistance, followed by the progressive failure of β-cells. An alternative hypothesis proposes instead that excessive insulin secretion may initially contribute to the development of resistance. By examining clinical, genetic, experimental, and pharmacological studies, a review concluded that the available evidence predominantly supports the presence of early β-cell dysfunction as the main determinant of dysglycemia, while acknowledging possible heterogeneity among individuals and clinical subgroups (Esser et al., 2020) [24].
Overall, the rise in glycemia becomes evident when insulin secretion is no longer adequate for metabolic demand. Glycemia can therefore be considered a mirror, often a late one, of residual pancreatic capacity. Its increase while fasting, after one hour, or after two hours from a load does not only indicate that more glucose has remained in circulation, but suggests that the compensation system has already begun to lose efficacy. For this reason, formally normal values do not necessarily guarantee the integrity of β-cells, just as elevated insulinemia does not automatically demonstrate efficient pancreatic function. Prevention should therefore intervene before overt hyperglycemia, by reducing the metabolic load and preserving the adaptive capacity of β-cells for as long as possible.